A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
