Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
